Description
Bankers are euphoric now that interest rates have risen after the extraordinary turmoil following the financial crisis and a protracted period of the lowest rates in their lifetimes. This “surprise” jump in rates arose post-election in anticipation of higher economic growth, ramped up infrastructure spending, higher inflation, lower taxes and less regulatory burden for bankers…all positive for bank earnings if all goes as planned. Some wild cards to consider: To what degree will rates rise and over what time period? More importantly, what about the slope of the curve? A rising rate scenario accompanied by a flatter yield curve will wreak havoc for many banks, while others will thrive. What have we learned from previous rate cycles, and what strategies should we consider and avoid this time around? The world is simply a great Shakespearean play, repeated over and over again, and the only things that really ever change are the actors on the stages. A well-informed and focused ALCO has far better odds of balancing current earnings needs with the challenges of the new rate cycle. Many institutions will hit the “panic” button at precisely the wrong time and take action they will likely regret down the road
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